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Global markets

Country risk

The extra return demanded for holding a sovereign’s assets, reflecting the chance it cannot or will not pay.

The market price of country risk is the spread between a government’s dollar bonds and matching US Treasuries, or the cost of credit default swaps on that government. A wider spread is a direct statement about perceived solvency.

Ratings from Moody’s, S&P and Fitch formalise the same judgement, and the investment-grade boundary matters disproportionately. Many institutional mandates cannot hold anything below it, so a downgrade across that line forces selling for reasons unrelated to the underlying view.

It is a floor under everything domestic. A company rarely borrows more cheaply than its own government, so sovereign risk sets the discount rate for every business in the country, which is why a sovereign downgrade reprices the local equity market too.

Also known as: sovereign risk · credit rating · CDS spread · default risk

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Educational definition. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation about any particular instrument.