Vela Crash Risk Index
One number, one colour, once a week: how close the global financial system is to breaking. Not how the market is doing — whether it is about to stop working.
The weekly summary publishes Sunday evening, US Eastern.
This is not the Pulse Score. The Vela Pulse Score is the speedometer: how the market is doing right now, refreshed every few minutes. The Crash Risk Index is the engine warning light: how likely the system is to break, recomputed daily and published weekly.
Components
Credit spreads, volatility, financial conditions, Treasuries, equity conditions, market breadth, labour, banking, inflation and the dollar — each scored against its own history, each with its own gauge, trend and component-level alerts. Accounts and subscriptions are not live on the English edition yet, so there is nothing to buy here today.
Index history
Conditional base rates
This index does not publish a probability of a crash, and it never will. A specific forecast is unfalsifiable in any single instance and erodes credibility on every quiet week. Instead it publishes counts from its own stored record: how often, when the index previously sat in this band, a drawdown of a given size followed within twelve months. Same information, sourced and checkable.
The historical counts for 10%, 20% and 35% S&P 500 drawdowns that followed when the index sat in the current band, computed from our own stored data with the sample size shown. Not available on the English edition until accounts are live.
The Crash Risk Index measures global systemic risk. It is the same number the Spanish edition publishes as the Semáforo de Riesgo. Nothing on this page is investment advice.